Making Sense Of The ADC Coalition
As Nigeria steadily approaches another critical election season, political realignments and power plays are beginning to take center stage. Among the most talked-about developments is the formation of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition — a bloc of political heavyweights and parties positioning themselves as a formidable opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election. With names like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai associated with it, the coalition has sparked widespread debate about its prospects, its internal dynamics, and what it could mean for the nation’s political future.
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The biggest political headline at the beginning of July this year was the emergence of a coalition that is ready to battle it out with the incumbent president, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in the 2027 election.
It was a notable moment given the uncertainty that had trailed its emergence.
Early Rumours and First Confirmation
First off, some of its members, including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Nasir El-Rufai, had earlier in March at a press conference affirmed that they had formed a coalition. That affirmation was in response to a question posed by a curious journalist who wanted to know if the gathering was the coalition that had been much spoken of. Whether the response was offhand or a prepared response remains unclear, especially as the gathering had majorly been to address the controversial emergency rule declared by President Tinubu, which the opposition figures frowned at.
But what followed after that was a renewed talk about the coalition. However, uncertainty followed, as not much was heard or visible actions seen regarding the coalition.
El-Rufai’s Defection and the SDP Angle
Prior to that, we had heard that El-Rufai had joined the Social Democratic Party, SDP. His defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, presented more uncertainty. However, the impression was created that the SDP was the party that may soon be adopted by the coalition members. But after much time, the former Kaduna State Governor appeared to be a lone defector to the new party, as no known figure followed him into the new party. That picture later became clearer after the former Director General of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), Salihu Lukman, confirmed that El-Rufai had indeed been in a haste to identify with a new party, a move that could have been better done collectively.
Meanwhile, while he was there, people like Adewole Adebayo, former presidential candidate of the SDP, had already started throwing jabs at him and those who might likely follow suit in the defection move, saying that the SDP was not welcoming to politicians who just wanted to grab power.
The ADA Option and the Shift to ADC
After some period, it was reported that the same political leaders had adopted the All Democratic Alliance, ADA, as a platform to contest the 2027 general election, and that the party was going through the process of registration.
Given these scenarios, it was indeed a surprise when on July 2, precisely at a gathering of who is who in the political sphere, the African Democratic Congress, ADC was announced as the party for the coalition. A critical question to ask was, what about the ADA that was announced a few days or weeks ago? Well, the leader of the coalition, Musa Ardo, provided an answer. He said the process of registering ADA was not forthcoming as expected, hence the choice of ADC. However, in the event the process is completed, they may return to ADA. Given that 2027 is still relatively far, there may not be much to say here except to hope that the constant defection and change of party does not pose a legal challenge in the future for the coalition members. Besides, based on the law which requires that the process of registering a new party should begin at least a year before the general election, I guess the Coalition may still have time.
The Elephant of Candidacy
However, there are other pressing issues, which I call the elephant in the room, that need to be urgently addressed as the coalition takes shape. And that is the issue of candidacy and the legality of ADC adoption. Who should the coalition choose as its presidential candidate? This question has not been answered in any clear terms, largely because the two well-known individuals—Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi who both had impressive showings in the 2023 presidential elections, have not indicated interest to step down for the other.
Atiku had secured 6.9 million votes under the People's Democratic Party (PDP) while Obi scored 6.1 million votes. While Atiku had been seeking the presidential seat since 1993, Obi had only done so for the first time in 2023—this was after he emerged Atiku's running mate in the 2019 election under the same PDP.
And this is where the problem lies. While Atiku, who has had several attempts at presidential contests and had occupied the vice presidential seat, may boast of experience and seniority in terms of age, supporters of Obi may argue that the former Anambra State governor's organic followership under the Obidient Movement makes him the perfect candidate to represent the coalition in the next presidential poll. This is regardless of the fact that Atiku secured more votes than Obi in the last general election.
Once the coalition decides to settle for an individual, no doubt, this will dominate headlines till the 2027 elections. From a personal perspective, the choice of Atiku will no doubt unsettle the Obidient camp and certainly divide any vote that may be garnered by the coalition. In addition, the possibility of the contest taking a regional turn is high, with President Tinubu likely to draw the sentiments of southern voters and Atiku northern voters. At the end, President Bola Tinubu may most likely secure a second term.
The choice of Obi by the coalition, however, may gain more acceptability and most likely pose the most significant challenge ever to be faced by an incumbent. This is due to his popularity, which only needs to be sealed by the endorsement of the northern political elites and Atiku's supporters.
Whatever the coalition does, it must learn from history and do so fast to choose a preferred aspirant in order to erase the cloud of uncertainty around the coalition.
Also, Obi having declared his interest to contest has not only erased the earlier rumoured agreement to be Atiku's running mate, but now leaves Atiku to either declare his intention or bow out.
The former vice president recently resigned from the People's Democratic Party, and the wait is on for his next move. If he declares interest in the race, then the coalition may suffer an already known fate.
Meanwhile, Rotimi Amaechi's declaration adds a complex mix to the situation. And I wonder if the whole politicking wouldn't have been easier if he didn't fall into the arena.
Another Elephant: Legal Challenge Over ADC
Another elephant in the room has been the possible legal challenge the adoption of ADC poses to the coalition members.
No sooner had the launch of the coalition taken place than people like Dumebi Kachikwu, the ADC presidential candidate in the 2023 election, raised the alarm over alleged breaches. Kachikwu argues that Ralph Nwosu, who collapsed and handed over the leadership of ADC to the interim leadership headed by former Senate President David Mark, was not the actual chairman of the ADC and was not in the best position to do so. He has since vowed to pursue the matter in court.
Meanwhile, I have personally been curious about the chairmanship claim of Nwosu, given that Kachikwu's presidential candidacy in 2023 was supervised under the acting chairman of ADC, Patricia Akwashiki and recognized by the electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). So, if truly this was what transpired, can Nwosu truly lay claim to the party's chairmanship, and was he the right person to hand over to the coalition? His leadership was said to have expelled or suspended Kachikwu in 2022, prior to the 2023 election. If indeed Kachikwu was suspended, how come INEC recognized his candidacy?
This is as some persons have alleged other kinds of breaches, including the party's constitution, which stipulates that those who are now running the affairs of the ADC should have come from the respective geopolitical zones of those who handed over to them. In other words, David Mark, who is from the North Central, should not have been appointed as interim Chairman given that Ralph Nwosu, who passed the baton to him, is from the South East. The same also goes for the National Secretary and National Publicity Secretary positions occupied by Rauf Aregbesola and Bolaji Abdullahi respectively.
Other arguments include that the new coalition leadership should have been members of the ADC for at least two years before being considered as members of the party's national executive committee.
The amendment that gave rise to the two-year membership requirement is also being questioned, as Nwosu is alleged to have carried on with the supposed amendment without the involvement of key stakeholders, including the electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Meanwhile, Bolaji Abdullahi, who is the interim spokesman of the coalition, had argued that all the constitutional requirements had been met before the adoption of the ADC as the coalition party.
All the arguments may suggest that a lot of work still needs to be done if indeed the party is being seriously considered as an alternative for the 2027 election. That would include rallying around aggrieved and displaced members of the ADC. All the posturing will be counterproductive, given how such matters could escalate to the point of no return and the intention of the coalition ultimately jeopardized.
The Zoning Trick
As the coalition takes shape, one of the issues that has also been widely rumoured is the move to get Obi to commit to one term if he's able to secure the ticket of the ADC.
The rationale behind this follows the fact that President Bola Tinubu, who is in APC, is a southern candidate, and anyone from the opposition who is from the South will have to do one term in order to complete the southern presidency and not breach a supposed agreement on zoning between the North and the South.
Out of curiosity, I'm still wondering whether this so-called agreement was made among political parties, of which APC or even ADC were not even in existence when it was made. Or was it among individuals of a political party, in this case, the PDP.
If indeed such an agreement existed, why did Atiku run and is still running for the presidency when the South is supposed to occupy the seat? The same goes for Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who contested under the New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP or even Muhammadu Buhari who began his presidential quest back on 2003 when a southerner was yet to complete his term. Let's assume Atiku wanted to complete the tenure of late former President Musa Yar'Adua, who died while serving as a president from the North under the PDP, how do we explain the narration that Goodluck Jonathan (vice president to Yar'Adua), who is from the South, lost the 2015 election partly because a northerner was supposed to complete the term of Yar'Adua? And so, if Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC, was the product of that wrong being righted, why didn't anybody insist that Buhari should do one term, given that Yar'Adua had already almost completed his first term before his demise? So, based on this logic, why is anyone constantly posing the question of one term to Obi? And why is Obi falling for that? It's doubtful if the so-called zoning agreement covers political parties, and what I have said so far puts a question mark to that narrative.
Why the Coalition Matters
In the meantime, for those who want to take over from the current leadership, there is no gainsaying that the coalition remains the best possible option. There had been talks by the Obi camp that Obi won the 2023 presidential election but was rigged out. Since there is no proof of that and given that the Supreme Court had long ruled on that, the coming together of the opposition remains the best option if they are serious about taking over the mantle of leadership. At least, the alliance that gave birth to the APC has proven that much.
Winning the Nigerian People
After all is said and done, the coalition may have to do more to win the hearts of Nigerians. Though not a new party, but relatively so in the current scheme of things, it will take the trust reposed in the leadership of the ADC by the voting population to be able to consider it as an alternative to the big parties, just as APC did prior to 2015 and Labour Party in 2023.
Other than that, they may just be chasing shadows. So, their actions and inactions ahead of 2027 will reveal whether they are united for the task ahead. Already, the state of affairs in the country is working in their favour; the rest is up to them.
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