Two Years On: Breaking Down President Tinubu's Second Year Anniversary Speech

As President Bola Tinubu marked two years in office, his administration highlighted the gains of reform. But do the numbers on paper reflect reality in the markets and homes of everyday Nigerians? This piece breaks down the president's claims and what the evidence shows.

Understanding the Thematic Focus of Tinubu's Speeches

As expected, May 29 marked two years of President Bola Tinubu in office, and we were treated to an anniversary speech. I personally like to look into the speeches of our leaders because, as the saying goes, "Out of the abundance of the heart, the mouth speaks." It gives me the opportunity to know what is going on in their minds and how they perceive things.

To start with, I have come to appreciate the thematic structure President Tinubu's speeches have taken because it helps us to deal with one particular issue at a given time. This is different from the time of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, when issues were lumped together in his speeches. It was almost difficult to distinguish an anniversary speech from a Democracy Day speech or any other speech, for that matter.

One Message: Progress

Having said that, taking a critical look at the president's speech, one message was clearly being projected: we have made progress, or the administration's reforms are working. But for the average Nigerian, how true is this claim?

Inflation: A Reality Check

I was reading a report on the preparations for the recent Sallah celebrations, and one thing was common among the traders—complaints. Complaints of low sales, as the cow which cost about 150,000 naira last year now costs 250,000. One trader said there was no longer a 150,000 naira cow this year.

President Tinubu started his administration with two key bold reforms—the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate.

In articulating the achievements of his government over the past two years, the president in his speech counted these reforms—just as he has always done at any given opportunity—as a key achievement of government, noting that these two were recipes for a “fiscal crisis that would have bred runaway inflation, external debt default, crippling fuel shortages, a plunging Naira, and an economy in free fall.”

In the next paragraph, the president noted that despite the bump in the cost of living, the country has made undeniable progress, while “inflation has begun to ease, with rice prices and other staples declining.”

Is Rice Really Cheaper?

It remains unclear whether the president was attributing the ease in inflation or the reduction in prices of rice and other staples to the twin economic policies, but the claim raised my curiosity—“Has the price of rice actually reduced?” I asked. Since I’m not one to buy bags of rice, I went searching for answers, and what I found was quite revealing.

To start with, the commonest answer I got in most of my internet searches, which quoted S&P reports on the commodity, attributed the reduction In the price of rice, especially between April and May 2025 to a supply glut.

India, which is one of the world’s largest producer of rice, had earlier imposed export restrictions, including a 20 percent export duty on broken white rice and parboiled rice. However, following a reversal, a price ease followed. As a result, the price of a 50kg bag of rice in Nigeria plummeted to as low as ₦58,000 in some regions, driven by a surge in rice imports through the Republic of Benin.

So, basically, India’s policy shift triggered a flood of cheaper rice into West African markets, significantly affecting prices across Nigeria.

Secondly, another report attributed the decrease in the price of rice to the weakening purchasing power of Nigerians. Meaning, Nigerians were buying less because they didn’t have the means to do so—even though they didn’t mind buying at a high price during the festive seasons. However, after the festive seasons, traders reported a significant drop in sales.

The price reduction In rice is also dependent on the type of rice, especially local rice. According to a report by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR), checks in Abuja and Kaduna showed a decrease in the local price of rice.

This type of rice, known as short-grain rice (which is said to absorb more water and cook faster), has seen the biggest price drop to as low as ₦60,000 per 50kg from about ₦68,000. However, the long-grain rice, especially premium brands like “My Choice,” still sells at higher prices (up to ₦90,000 per 50kg bag). This was also linked to cost pressures.

Strange Rumours and Market Panic

Meanwhile, in April, DAILY POST observed that the price of 50kg of rice was between ₦81,000 and ₦115,000 for local and foreign brands, at Kubwa and Dutse markets as of Monday evening. Now, what do we attribute this to?

One of the most interesting revelations of the rice price decrease is the link to a so-called deadly rice in circulation. The price of a 50kg bag of rice, as reported by PUNCH Newspaper in April, dropped to an average of ₦54,000 from ₦58,000 following rumours of alleged deadly rice in circulation.

Demands for rice were said to have reduced during the period due to claims that people died after buying rice in Badagry, Lagos State, and Idiroko in Ogun State.

“The demand for rice dropped lately when parents and relatives sent voice messages to their loved ones, warning them against buying or consuming rice this time because it was alleged by another sender on WhatsApp that over 70 persons had died in the past few days after buying or consuming the said rice.”

Market Logic and Government Claims

In further making sense of the recent reduction in the price of rice, Nairametrics, quoting market analysts in its monthly Food Price Watch for May, attributed it to better regional harvests, reduced hoarding activities, and a temporary stabilization in fuel and logistics costs. However, the analysts warned that “prices remain vulnerable to seasonal volatility and broader macroeconomic pressures.”

In all of these reasons posited to explain the reduction in the prices of rice, it is noteworthy that not one was linked to the twin policies of subsidy removal and forex exchange unification. Even when market analysts mentioned stabilization in fuel and logistics costs, the right question to ask is: to what extent did this stabilization help in the price reduction? What was the price of the commodity before and after the Tinubu administration?

Apparently, the cost of fuel is still high compared to the period prior to May 29, 2023. When are we going to go back to that era? Are we ever going back to that era? These questions need urgent answers, given the basic knowledge that businesses and trade rely on transportation, of which fuel price determines its cost. When businesses spend more on transportation, they pass the burden on the consumer. And so The cycle continues. So, what’s the Tinubu administration doing to ensure a reduction in the price of fuel?

Beyond Policy: Real Economic Impact

Despite the coming on stream of the Dangote refinery, citizens are yet to enjoy the dividends this local refining should have brought. Even occasional announcements of price reduction by the company have not been transferred to the final consumer. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has also continued to lag, despite the initial hope that came with its revitalization of the Port Harcourt refinery. It’s difficult to say how much the Port Harcourt refinery has contributed to easing Nigeria’s and Nigerians’ financial woes. Recently, it announced shutting down operations for maintenance, and I’m pushed to ask: what has it produced to think of shutting down for maintenance?

Forex Unification: Still a Long Way to Go?

Now to the forex unification: how has the unification eased inflation of commodities including rice, as claimed by the president? The wide margin between the naira and dollar still persists, giving rise to prices of imported goods, since Nigeria has insisted on being a consuming nation.

Crude oil production, which could have closed this gap, is still abysmal, and the bunkering and stealing in the sector have continued. I have always insisted that the easiest and fastest way to boost our foreign reserve, of which the country’s financial stability is partly and largely dependent, is to go all out in its oil production level. Deal decisively with oil bunkering, stealing, and deploy the latest technology.

The president, sometime ago, said the government was aiming at two million barrels per day of oil production by 2027—not 2025, not 2026, but 2027. And I ask: are we really serious about our economic prosperity if we are aiming for such a mere capacity, which ordinarily is what can be achieved in 2025 if we can stop the pilfering?

The economic policies of the administration cannot be totally written off as bad. After all, it was the desire of many Nigerians for the government to deal with the corruption that came with the fuel subsidy regime and the multiple exchange rate system. What, however, remains missing is the turnaround that should have come with them.

So, if the turnarounds are yet to materialize, what then is the president attributing to the price reduction in rice and other staples?

Just like one consumer lamented in the Nairametrics report: “Even when the price of rice goes down, it doesn’t make much difference because everything else is climbing.”

And that's precisely the point. While prices of certain commodities are falling despite no significant improvements in economic policy, others are becoming more expensive due to unrelated factors. This suggests that the shifts in prices are not necessarily driven by sound economic management, but by external or sector-specific influences.

Beyond the Numbers: Everyday Nigerians Still Struggle

For example, it's almost difficult to buy pepper for 200 naira. There was a time it was easy to get 500 naira worth of potatoes, but recently, it's difficult to get the market women to sell at such a price. Meanwhile, pumpkin leaves (ugu), which came in small sizes at the price of 200 naira from late last year, now come in big sizes—albeit at 200 naira—given there was a time the commodity was sold at 100 naira. There was a time tomato was expensive, but 500 naira can now buy a reasonable amount of tomatoes.

Improvements in prices have also been linked to seasonal harvests. In the end, fluctuations in prices remain due to certain factors.

So in essence, while we wait for the twin economic policies to spur the government to work harder and in turn stabilize the economy, other price hike contributors will also need to be taken care of. Insecurity, which the president in his speech claimed is improving, especially in the northwest, still thrives. I have often wondered why a notorious bandit by the name Turji Bello is still on the prowl in that region.

Recent reports in Benue, Plateau, etc. also leave a lot to be desired. We know the turnaround that can happen in the prices of foods if Benue, the food basket of the nation, is saved from the current bloodbath.

The indiscipline and sabotage in the security circle will also need to be dealt with. A recent report of arms supply by security operatives to criminals is not new but requires a sincere and deliberate personnel audit to fish out the evil ones. Such an audit is long overdue.

The lack of harmonization and coordination in policies and decision-making will always give rise to disparity in growth. And that's why there are fluctuations in prices of goods. If, for example, seasonal harvests lead to price falls, what is being done to ensure the bumper harvest continues all year round, especially for areas bedeviled with insecurity? What is being done about debilitated roads? What is being done about corrupt middlemen? What is being done about fuel prices and transportation costs? What is being done about forex? What is being done about electricity? etc.

The CBN can also claim improvement in inflationary pressure resulting from its monetary policies, but all those will have no meaning if the cost-pull contributors are still unattended to.

So, will the government sit down with its team and understand the interconnectedness of each ministry, sector, and policy to the well-being of an average Nigerian, and begin to plan together with its team?

The president reeled out other economic gains like GDP growth, revenue boost, rise in foreign reserves, drop in deficit, etc., in his speech, and one can only guess why these have had minimal impact.

The president further listed gains and investment in other sectors like education (student loan), health, solid minerals, oil and gas, agriculture, electricity, etc. While these are commendable, what appears most urgent to the average Nigerian is to increase their purchasing power. Nigeria is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades, with families finding it difficult to eat one square meal a day. Whatever the government is doing should be geared towards arresting further hunger and starvation. Any other thing is secondary.

What Needs Urgent Attention

The economic policies of the administration cannot be totally written off as bad. After all, it was the desire of many Nigerians for the government to deal with the corruption that came with the fuel subsidy regime and the multiple exchange rate system. What, however, remains missing is the turnaround that should have come with them.

A Call for Realignment

So, will the government sit down with its team and understand the interconnectedness of each ministry, sector, and policy to the well-being of an average Nigerian, and begin to plan together with its team?

Where We Go From Here

The president reeled out other economic gains like GDP growth, revenue boost, rise in foreign reserves, drop in deficit, etc., in his speech, and one can only guess why these have had minimal impact.

The president further listed gains and investment in other sectors like education (student loan), health, solid minerals, oil and gas, agriculture, electricity, etc. While these are commendable, what appears most urgent to the average Nigerian is to increase their purchasing power. Nigeria is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades, with families finding it difficult to eat one square meal a day. Whatever the government is doing should be geared towards arresting further hunger and starvation. Any other thing is secondary.

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